World Held to Ransom

What holds the world to ransom right now is the idiocy of the Trump Fascist Regime. Not the cripplingly complex blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. 

A whole lot of suffering for all is coming. It is too late to stop many dominoes falling.  It might help to know the what and the how.  It might not help... over to you.

What?

20% of the world's petrol, diesel, avgas, LNG gas, CNG gas, bunker fuel, fertiliser, and tanker fleet, is bottled-up in and around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Oil and gas wells and refineries are being capped or shut-down.  It takes a very long time to re-open some of these. 

Meanwhile prices soar. $50 a barrel is now $109 a barrel, and can go to $300 ... or be rationed, or become unavailable.  Crops weaken and wilt. Famine's prospect raises its head.  Companies shut production lines.  Governments are just now starting to ban some travel, shorten work weeks, slash benefits.  It will quicken surprisingly fast.

How?

Thanks to just four sea mines being strategically put in place by the IRGC.  Four, of 8,000 that Iran has likely stockpiled.

[Wall Street Journal says 10, Reuters says 12, CNN says 24, Institute for the Study of War 'fewer than 10'. But the number remains 4 according to those who know]. 

There are two international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has its own separate lane that sees Iranian oil come and go safely from Bandar Abbas - safe due to ship flag issues, having China as purchaser, and sure knowledge that any harm would result in massive ecological damage to all 13 Persian Gulf states.

Just two international lanes. (See lower image)

In, and Out.

Both are blocked now, and in multiple ways hard to change over the next few months - who knows, perhaps years.  Blocked by:

-  shocking unavailability of sensitive minesweeping - the USA took back and dismantled its West Asia minesweepers just months ago (USS Devastator, USS Dextrous, USS Gladiator, and USS Sentry - were based in Bahrain).

- ground-based missiles and guns in deep emplacements or on mobile platforms.

- many Russian Kilo-class submarines owned by Iran.

- insurance costs and insurance availability (a surprisingly powerful factor)

- an unexpected and ongoing lack of Naval escorts to safeguard passage.

- a huge fleet of 1,500 small fast attack craft and 1,000 pf the latest naval drones.
-  heavy and complex blocking of GPS and normal navigation aids and organisation.

- incendiary munitions borne by slow air drones (HESA Shahed-136 with a devastating 40kg thermobaric munition aboard) and unstoppably fast ballistic hypersonic re-entry missiles (e.g. Khorramshahr and Zolfaghar)

- modern sea mines (perhaps the knock-out factor).

Russian supplied.

It would take a book chapter to explain the near unbelievable intricacies of how it can now take just two sea mines each to block these two critical shipping lanes. Just 4 Programmable Russian MDM 'Bottom Mines' to effectively block both lanes. 

Iran received 1,000 MDM-6 sea mines back in the 1990's as part of a Russian-supplied Kilo-class Submarine purchase. 

They are also believed to have MDM-1, 2 (See upper mage), 3, 4, and 5 Sea Mines, either in large stockpiles, or in smaller - but still handy - 'test numbers'.  Besides all of those, they are believed to have 7,000 less high-spec sea mines of older, Chinese, or local manufacture.

Many of these sea mines can be put in place by rockets, drones, naval ships (precious few left), small attack craft (1,500 remain), fishing vessels, and submarines (24 remain).

Insurance companies will not allow ships to move whilst those four mines are in place.  They have their own powerful interests to protect, and firm established rules about cover.  They await Iranian signals, and mine clearance, and a cessation of hostilities... plus anything else Iran demands and manages to wrangle with Israel and the USA in return for opening the Strait.

Not ordinary sea mines.

These are not like World War II sea mines that float or wait just below the surface hoping for contact, or to be tripped magnetically by a hull.  They sit on the seafloor. Sensing.  

- They have remarkable sensors loaded with 'signatures' of types of ships - those to target, those to let pass.

- They are hard to detect and require the best minesweepers taking great risk for many days and weeks to find and remove or detonate.

- They send up a rising munition powerful enough to break the back of many ships, causing them to sink in minutes, leaving crews unable to evacuate.

- They scan passing ships to assess Magnetic signature, Acoustic signature, Pressure signature, and information from Seismic sensors.

- They combine gathered data and preset programming to assess multi-influence fuzing against a growing library of known individual ship signatures and targeting requirements. They can - for instance - allow frigates to pass but target aircraft carriers of just one nation, leave minesweepers to pass many times, work out which ships are those of neutrals.

Nuclear 'remedy'?

The temptation for Israel to assemble its nuclear weapons at Dimona and use them ... is now there.  The temptation for the USA to do likewise is rising.  Currently the USA is uselessly threatening a 'twenty-fold increase in bombing' if the Iranians harm more shipping.  But that is bombast.  Iran has little left to lose, except a very stubborn leverage over the Strait - all their new leader has so far spoken about.  Bombing civilians would achieve nothing that would unblock the Strait.  Nor would ground forces on islands in the Gulf, islands that have been left mysteriously untouched so far.  

I fear it is a case of nukes or Trump goes home with his tail between his legs, as the USA has so often experienced against asymmetrically-armed nations who outlast the USA's marauding attention-span, culture and capabaility ignorance, and weak justifications.

Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Cuba, Lebanon, Nicaragua, Somalia ... no real gain anywhere since the 60's for the marauding 'super-power' it seems.  This will all prove no different.  We all will suffer for 2 months ... or 2 years. Not like Iranians are suffering, but without their ability to endure.

~ John Greally

All information drawn from:

Wikipedia [Image], 

Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA),

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 

USNI News (US Naval Institute), 

Mehr News Agency (Iranian, translated, filtered), 

Autistic Iranian Sources (anonymous).